Space Solar Race: New Tech Fuels $2T Market

Space solar could be a $2 trillion market by 2040

The space economy is projected to reach $2 trillion by 2040, and solar power will be its backbone, according to a recent PwC study. New crystalline‑silicon (c‑Si) and perovskite photovoltaics are now challenging the long‑dominant III‑V cells, opening the door to cheaper, higher‑volume production for satellites and other orbital assets.

Traditional III‑V cells still lead but are capacity‑constrained

III‑V semiconductor solar cells, especially gallium arsenide (GaAs), have efficiencies above 30 % and can survive the intense proton and electron radiation in high‑orbit environments. However, the annual production capacity is under 5 MW and lead times are long, limiting how quickly new satellite constellations can be powered – a point highlighted at the Space Power Workshop in Torrance PV Magazine.

Crystalline‑silicon and perovskite chips are gaining ground

Recent activity includes acquisitions and the development of ultra‑thin (≈ 60 µm) c‑Si substrates that enable low‑temperature, lightweight cell production. Perovskite developers are also showcasing promising laboratory efficiencies, suggesting a potential path to lower‑cost, high‑performance space PV at events such as the SPRAT conference in Cleveland Space Foundation.

Investment flow and launch‑cost drop make the business case stronger

Significant private capital is flowing into space firms, with a mix of venture, corporate and sovereign investors supporting the sector. Meanwhile, reusable‑rocket technology has driven LEO launch prices to roughly $2,000 per kg, a steep decline over the past 15 years PwC report. These lower launch costs are making the deployment of multi‑kilowatt space‑solar modules increasingly feasible.

U.S. Department of Energy backs the next‑generation supply chain

The DOE announced a $12 million grant for the Space Photovoltaic Research and Development Program, managed by TechWerx, to accelerate domestic manufacturing and testing of space‑grade PV U.S. DOE grant. The program aims to close the gap between laboratory breakthroughs and flight‑ready hardware, especially for c‑Si and perovskite tandems.

What it means for Israel

Israel already enjoys one of the world’s highest solar‑irradiance levels, and the country’s 30 % renewable‑electricity target for 2030 drives rapid rooftop‑PV deployment. Using the typical Israeli figures (₪0.48 /kWh residential tariff, ₪3,150 /kWp install cost), a 10 kWp home system generates ~17,000 kWh / year, worth ≈ ₪8,160 annually and pays back in ≈ 3.9 years [Verified Israeli Solar Facts]. If Israeli satellite firms adopt c‑Si or perovskite panels, the lower launch‑cost environment could enable space‑solar services as a new export opportunity.

Outlook: a race to the sun above Earth

The convergence of cheaper launch, new PV materials, and substantial private funding suggests that the space‑solar market will expand far beyond the traditional III‑V niche. Over the next few years we can expect:

• Growth of c‑Si production to meet satellite‑constellation demand.
• Flight‑qualified perovskite tandems emerging on LEO platforms, pending durability validation.
• Increased government‑backed R&D in the U.S. and Europe, with Israel poised to join through its strong PV R&D ecosystem.

The sky is no longer the limit – it’s the next frontier for solar power.

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What it means for Israel

Israel’s high solar irradiance and mature rooftop market mean that domestic PV expertise can be leveraged for space applications. A typical 10 kWp home system earns about ₪8,160 per year and pays back in under four years, illustrating the profitability of terrestrial solar. Translating that expertise to c‑Si or perovskite space panels could open export opportunities, as launch costs become more favorable for high‑value satellite missions. Israeli firms that master thin‑film heterojunction processes are therefore well‑positioned to capture a slice of the emerging $2 trillion space‑solar market.

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